ZigMerid Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I presume most on this forum have seen the news around chip shortages affecting many "Just-In-Time" car manufacturers, including deep-pocketed Japanese ones such as Honda and Toyota. It strikes me that motorcycle manufacturers could be similarly vulnerable given most new motorcycles have a bevy of brain-boxes controlling things like stability control, emissions control, ABS and more. But I've not read anything in the motoring press one way of the other! That could be because much of the motoring press has little interested in the two-wheel world, or it could be that the manufacturing numbers are much smaller, so perhaps they are not as vulnerable to supply issues. Personally I'm most interested in the potential impact of the April release of the 2021 Tracer 9GT, so if anyone has any solid news on the matter, it'd be great to know. Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2WHLOZK Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 What percentage of said chips are manufactured in China? And how bad do they want to punish their adversaries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koth442 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I'm not actually up to date on the chip shortage. What's going on? '15 FJ09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZigMerid Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 (edited) 25 minutes ago, koth442 said: I'm not actually up to date on the chip shortage. What's going on? Oh? Hmm. Maybe it's more of a geeky issue than I thought. Here's some links. Plenty of others to be found. Here are some of the car models most likely to be in shorter supply due to the global chip shortage Car shoppers may see an impact in the availability of certain car... Intel and AMD Ask for Government Incentives While Apple Supplier TSMC Expands to Meet Unprecedented Demand | MacRumors Forums A group of U.S. chip companies, including Intel, Qualcomm, Micron, and... Chip Shortage Hits Global Automakers A semiconductor shortage is pinching some of the world’s biggest auto... How Covid led to a $60 billion global chip shortage for the auto industry Automakers are expected to lose billions of dollars in earnings this year... Edited February 15, 2021 by ZigMerid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhotoAl Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I don't expect the delay to impact the new Tracer GT, doesn't have as many processors and their production volume is small relatively. I did see Toyota has a 4 month stockpile of chips. Hummmm so Ford how's that just in time stuff working out for you? It's a complex problem not sure it is really 26 weeks lead time like one person quoted but certainly isn't trivial either. Think the shifting demand as more folks worked from home and bought more equipment changed demand patterns. Chips are amazingly complex, my oldest son works in the semiconductor industry and it's interesting to hear his comments about making chips. He does not work for Intel or AMD. Intel's problems are different in that AMD and Apple have whooped their rear in chip design and are taking market share away from them. How did the most advanced processor manufacture completely miss out on the phone and tablet market? Intel has many many super smart and great engineers and scientists! IMO it was poor leadership. TSMC is the most advanced fab in the world. Samsung is very good in design and fab but not as good as TSMC. Some of you may remember the iPhones that had chips from Samsung or TSMC - the more desirable phone was the one with the TSMC processor. Many companies have moved from being integrated - design and manufacture their own chips to design and then have a fab make the chip. It is a constant battle to improve geometry and processes so the chips are smaller, faster and more efficient. Intel has struggled trying to advance their processes as well. Working in the semiconductor industry is brutal - my son works incredible hours. He has a PhD, said he didn't want to go to medical school because of the long hours doctors worked and he didn't like blood. So now he gets to work longer hours and sweat blood and he went to school longer but he is happy. Sometimes he is like being around an episode of the Big Bang Theory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium Member keithu Posted February 16, 2021 Premium Member Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 hours ago, PhotoAl said: It's a complex problem not sure it is really 26 weeks lead time like one person quoted but certainly isn't trivial either. That lead time really doesn't surprise me. My company has a wafer fab at the campus where I work; it's an incredibly expensive facility to build and run, and the tools inside the fab are a massive capital investment. It's no trivial matter to expand capacity in these facilities. Our fab mainly produces wafers for inkjet printhead nozzle plates, which take about 30 days to build up. And making the wafer is just one part of the process. Factor in post-processing of the wafer, component assembly, and production scheduling and yeah, 26 weeks sounds about right. This is just a wild guess, but I would expect motorcycles to be less affected by this shortage. Yes, they use many chips, but not nearly as many as modern cars. And since motos are lower volume they probably need even longer lead times than the big volume, big money car manufacturers. If motorcycles are affected I'd expect to see more delays in new 2022 models, especially the more tech-heavy ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZigMerid Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 The other thing I read .... (somewhere on the internet so must be true) is that automakers aren't volume buyers compared to computer companies and consumer electronics. Furthermore, apparently most automakers are cheapskates who only want to buy at the cheapest price possible. As a consequence chip vendors put them at the back of the line when it comes to satisfying orders. Certainly Yammy would not be a volume buyer in this case, let's hope they are not total cheapskates! (Frankly I have little sympathy for automakers crying for support because they didn't plan well or buy well, yet here we are.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kilo3 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 (edited) The first problem was relying on China. The second issue is we're the moron's that showed them how to produce our products and well. Only ourselves to blame. Lots of my contract manufacturers are actively or already moved to the next third world country to exploit. Edited February 17, 2021 by kilo3 wow english 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhotoAl Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Agree on relying on China too much. Also think that most large US companies, particularly the automakers look too much at what the others are doing and imitate them. Always fascinating when the just in time inventory cripples a manufacture. When looking at technology so many products are made in one location are vulnerable to something happening there. Anyone remember when hard disks became difficult to get because of the floods in Thailand? When my son was in grad school most of his fellow students were here on a student visa. Many of his co-workers are not from the US. As a country we are extremely lacking in encouraging kids to go into science and technology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium Member 1moreroad Posted February 17, 2021 Premium Member Share Posted February 17, 2021 12 hours ago, kilo3 said: The first problem was relying on China. The second issue is we're the moron's that showed them how to produce our products and well. Only ourselves to blame. Lots of my contract manufacturers are actively or already moved to the next third world country to exploit. Relying on China is nowhere near the first problem. That was a rational consequence of a lot of other problems. There is no "first" problem because that implies we could fix everything if we just solved that problem. Among problems: the American consumer proving that we will give up almost anything if we can buy something for $1 cheaper (see: airline tickets). Shareholder capitalism that prioritizes the wealth of a relatively small group of Americans over everyone else (Dodge v Ford lawsuit). The fall of regulations that allowed so much of this work to be moved overseas - and also gave us the rise of 6 axis IMUs in middleweight moderately affordable motorcycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kilo3 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I probably should have saved that for fireside chat. 🤪 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium Member 1moreroad Posted February 17, 2021 Premium Member Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, kilo3 said: I probably should have saved that for fireside chat. 🤪 I agree relying on China is a problem, but for reasons we ourselves created based on market incentives. Watched a video essay complaining that basic kitchen appliances today don't last as long as appliances in the 1960s his mom used but fails to mention that those appliances cost exactly the same - NOT inflation adjusted - as they did in the 1960s. Unwinding problems like the lack of American manufacturing or durability has to account for all factors. Relying on China was an effect not a cause. I'll step off the soapbox now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium Member keithu Posted February 17, 2021 Premium Member Share Posted February 17, 2021 Very true. A modest USA-assembled washer-dryer set cost around $800-1000 in 1981. Today a modest USA-assembled washer-dryer set costs around... $1000-1200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanderer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Our clothes drier came with our house when we bought it in 1999, and I think it must be original from 1978 or so. It keeps ticking. Our LG clothes washing machine is only 7 or so years old, and already had a clutch failure a couple years ago. In a fit of stubbornness, my wife bought and installed a new clutch assembly (the repair man said it wasn't worth it to fix it), and the thing is still running. I didn't help much at all, just brawn when she needed more muscle. She's resourceful when she sets her mind to it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhotoAl Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 About 30 years ago I bought a nice 20" stereo TV. Thought I got a good price as it was $400. Looking at TV's in Costco I can get a "small" 43" LG 4K LCD for $309.99. Considering inflation that is a whole lot cheaper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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